2030–2050 Outlook

By the end of 2022, the PGNiG Group, the ORLEN Group and Lotos will form a multi-utility group, which is set to become the leader in Poland and a major player on the gas market in Central and Eastern Europe. It will be a gas hub serving customers across the region, based on the LNG terminal in Świnoujście and the extensive cross-border infrastructure, including the Baltic Pipe connection with Norway and Denmark. Gas infrastructure expansion projects have allowed PGNiG to effectively diversify its sources and directions of natural gas supplies, with the diversification being a cornerstone of Poland’s energy security, particularly given the war waged by Russia against Ukraine.

The PGNiG Group complements its traditional gas exploration and production business with the new fast-growing RES segment. It constantly expands its presence in and integrates the heat generation sector, growing its assets and effectively decarbonising the energy sector by gradually switching to gas-powered or RES power plants, thus replacing old coal-fired furnaces. The Group maintains its commitment to the development of hydrogen and other new technologies and their implementation in business. The multi-utility group incorporating PGNiG is poised to create a coherent chain of hydrogen capabilities by 2022, enabling further growth of this business line.

2030 is the time horizon of the European Union’s climate and energy policy.


  • The National Energy and Climate Plan 2021–2030 envisages:
    • Further decarbonisation of Poland’s energy sector, with the target share of coal in the energy mix at 56%–60% (compared with approximately 71% today*)
    • 21%–23% share of RES in gross final energy consumption (compared with 15% in the base year 2015), with the target share of RES in power generation at ca. 32%
    • Development of environmentally-friendly and efficient heating systems. By 2030, at least 85% of the heating or cooling systems with contracted capacity exceeding 5 MW are to meet the criteria of an energy-efficient heating system. This goal is to be achieved through:
      • expansion of cogeneration
      • adaptation of power plants for heat production
      • increased use of RES and natural gas in the heat generation sector
      • increased use of waste in energy generation
      • creating conditions conducive to increased use of district heating
    • Maintaining Poland’s annual natural gas production at ca. 4 bcm and seeking to increase the output with innovative technologies helping to improve production efficiency
    • Expanding underground gas storage capacity to at least 4 bcm by the 2030/2031 winter season and expanding the maximum daily withdrawal capacity from 48.7 mcm to at least 60 mcm
    • Advancement of electric mobility and alternative fuels in transport, including natural gas (CNG and LNG) and hydrogen, driven by efforts promoting alternative fuels in transport and simultaneous expansion of the distribution infrastructure

* https://www.are.waw.pl/o-are/aktualnosci/w-2021-udzial-mocy-weglowych-w-krajowym-miksie-spadl-do-58-5

The Fourth Industrial Revolution, also known as Industry 4.0, is influencing almost all branches of manufacturing. The concept uses and integrates various digital techniques, including the Internet of Things (IoT), Big Data, smart sensors and Augmented Reality (AR), in order to fully automate the production process and pass some decision making on to the artificial intelligence (AI) level.

This major industrial trend has had an impact on the gas, fuels and energy sectors and has allowed companies to digitally optimise most of their business areas. According to the Digital Oilfield Market report published by MarketsandMarkets, the global Digital Oilfield Market is expected to grow by 26% on 2019, to USD 30.4bn by 2024.

An example of an industrial process digitalisation project implemented in Poland is the Integrated Deposit Management System supporting the efforts to optimise PGNiG’s production operations. Geologists, field and production engineers and economists are involved in exploration for and extraction of mineral resources. Massive amounts of data are generated, stored and used in each of these fields. The Digital Field platform integrates the results of work of specialists across various disciplines into a single field model, facilitating optimum use of the data. The digital model is used to simulate various scenarios for production from several fields at a time, increase forecast accuracy, optimise the drilling programme, analyse the effects of planned capital projects (CAPEX) and optimise energy consumption (OPEX) and supply chains.

As an unavoidable effect of ongoing digitalisation and advancement of Industry 4.0, companies have started to generate and accumulate a new type of resource: data. In contrast to primary applications which used the most recent data describing process status, advanced applications increasingly value historical data. The latter can be used to develop a plant and machinery failure prediction model, optimise production processes, enable virtual exploration for natural resources, etc. Companies in traditional industries still have a rather limited knowledge of what data they have, how they can use it and what its potential value is. This will change over time, and for the most active and agile sector companies data and data-based services may even become a new business line. Before they explore and actually use the newly-built asset, companies must face a number of new challenges and tasks involving an informed approach to data, information and knowledge management by implementing, for instance, Data Governance processes and solutions (for more information, see W kierunku energii przyszłości [Towards the energy of the future], a report published by PGNiG in 2019, at).

Obtaining energy from renewable energy sources is currently one of the key technological challenges for the gas, fuels and energy sectors. It is supported by the EU’s climate neutrality policy (European Green Deal), which translates into preferential funding for RES projects. At the same time, the need for decarbonising the energy sector is conducive to the development of RES. Natural gas and nuclear energy may serve as a system stabiliser for renewables.

Another driving factor behind RES growth is stimulating the market for small energy producers, prosumers and companies creating innovative solutions in RES generation, distribution and storage (Towards the energy of the future], a report published by PGNiG in 2019).

Biomethane obtained from biomass fermentation (biogas produced in the process is purified and turned into biomethane) may be an important renewable source for the gas industry. The PGNiG Group’s target volume of biomethane in Poland’s distribution network is ca. 4 bcm by the end of 2030.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a fuel which begins to play an increasingly important role in both global and domestic energy mix, and which is given particular attention in terms of innovation advancement. This is due to LNG's significant advantage over other fossil energy carriers, in particular:

  • low environmental impact: LNG combustion does not produce any harmful dust or smoke, and CO₂ emissions are 30% lower compared with burning fuel oil or coal
  • multiple applications – LNG can be used as a traditional fuel for generating energy in large-scale power plants, as a fuel for local businesses’ small-scale energy generating units, and can also be successfully used as a fuel for internal combustion engines used in road, rail and water transport.

All that makes LNG increasingly popular, as confirmed by forecasts that put annual LNG output at 630 million tonnes in 2050, almost three times the 2016 figure. The LNG technology areas on which development work will focus in the coming years include in particular:

  • Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) technologies that enable the production of LNG at sea, directly at offshore gas fields, which reduces the cost of LNG production by as much as 50% (IGU’s Global Natural Gas Insights – 2019 Edition)
  • transport-related technologies, including refuelling infrastructure and the development of more efficient LNG-powered vehicles.

The development of LNG technologies is a catalyst of growth in gas mobility, which can be an alternative to electric vehicles, particularly in heavy transport. The trend allows sector companies to develop new business models targeted at both retail and institutional customers. Since liquefied natural gas meets stringent requirements of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), both ports and ship manufacturers keep tabs on technologies that enable the use of LNG to power ships. It should be noted that in the spring of 2019 one of the first commercial bunkering operations was carried out in Poland. It took place in the Port of Gdynia and used LNG supplied by PGNiG (for more information, see W kierunku energii przyszłości [Towards the energy of the future], a report published by PGNiG in 2019.

By 2030, the PGNiG Group is set to become part of a modern multi-utility group with an extensive RES arm complementing its current core business based on natural gas. The multi-utility will play a major role on the RES market, also relying on biomethane.

By 2030, the multi-utility group including PGNiG will become the leader of Poland’s heat generation industry, continuing the decarbonisation process based on natural gas, nuclear energy and renewables as the industry integrator.

Hydrogen solutions will form a separate business segment, and the hydrogen technology development programme will be continued.

2050 is the target date for the European Union to become climate-neutral.


  • Climate neutrality – the EU becomes climate-neutral. In 2019, the European Council announced its goal to make Europe climate-neutral by 2050. As requested by the European Parliament and the European Council, the Commission’s vision of the climate-neutral future covers nearly all EU policies and is in line with the Paris Agreement objective to keep the global temperature increase to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C (more).

By 2050, the multi-utility group including PGNiG will expand its use of alternative gases: hydrogen and biomethane, turning them into separate business segments. The group will be a trailblazer in the zero-carbon transition and a lynchpin of real change in the energy mix based on natural gas, nuclear energy and renewables (photovoltaics, wind and biogas). In heat generation, the Group will seek to fully switch to the energy sources listed above. Continuous development of modern technologies will permit the PGNiG Group to strongly enter the market with a product range of the future.

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