2030–2050 Outlook

The Fourth Industrial Revolution, also known as Industry 4.0, is influencing almost all branches of manufacturing. The concept uses and integrates various digital techniques, including the Internet of Things (IoT), Big Data, smart sensors and Augmented Reality (AR), in order to fully automate the production process and pass some decision making on to the artificial intelligence (AI) level.

This major industrial trend has had an impact on the gas, fuels and energy sectors and has allowed companies to digitally optimise most of their business areas. According to the Digital Oilfield Market report published by MarketsandMarkets, the global Digital Oilfield Market is expected to grow by 26% on 2019, to USD 30.4bn by 2024.

An example of an industrial process digitalisation project implemented in Poland is the Integrated Deposit Management System supporting the efforts to optimise PGNiG’s production operations. Geologists, field and production engineers and economists are involved in exploration for and extraction of mineral resources. Massive amounts of data are generated, stored and used in each of these fields. The Digital Field platform integrates the results of work of specialists across various disciplines into a single field model, facilitating optimum use of the data. The digital model is used to simulate various scenarios for production from several fields at a time, increase forecast accuracy, optimise the drilling programme, analyse the effects of planned capital projects (CAPEX) and optimise energy consumption (OPEX) and supply chains.

As an unavoidable effect of ongoing digitalisation and advancement of Industry 4.0, companies have started to generate and accumulate a new type of resource: data. In contrast to primary applications which used the most recent data describing process status, advanced applications increasingly value historical data. The latter can be used to develop a plant and machinery failure prediction model, optimise production processes, enable virtual exploration for natural resources, etc. Companies in traditional industries still have a rather limited knowledge of what data they have, how they can use it and what its potential value is. This will change over time, and for the most active and agile sector companies data and data-based services may even become a new business line. Before they explore and actually use the newly-built asset, companies must face a number of new challenges and tasks involving an informed approach to data, information and knowledge management by implementing, for instance, Data Governance processes and solutions (for more information, see W kierunku energii przyszłości [Towards the energy of the future], a report published by PGNiG in 2019, at).

Obtaining energy from renewable energy sources is currently one of the key technological challenges for the gas, fuels and energy sectors. It is supported by the EU’s climate neutrality policy (European Green Deal), which translates into preferential funding for RES projects. At the same time, the need for decarbonising the energy sector is conducive to the development of RES. Natural gas and nuclear energy may serve as a system stabiliser for renewables.

Another driving factor behind RES growth is stimulating the market for small energy producers, prosumers and companies creating innovative solutions in RES generation, distribution and storage (Towards the energy of the future], a report published by PGNiG in 2019).

Biomethane obtained from biomass fermentation (biogas produced in the process is purified and turned into biomethane) may be an important renewable source for the gas industry. The PGNiG Group’s target volume of biomethane in Poland’s distribution network is ca. 4 bcm by the end of 2030.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a fuel which begins to play an increasingly important role in both global and domestic energy mix, and which is given particular attention in terms of innovation advancement. This is due to LNG's significant advantage over other fossil energy carriers, in particular:

• low environmental impact: LNG combustion does not produce any harmful dust or smoke, and CO₂ emissions are 30% lower compared with burning fuel oil or coal
• multiple applications – LNG can be used as a traditional fuel for generating energy in large-scale power plants, as a fuel for local businesses’ small-scale energy generating units, and can also be successfully used as a fuel for internal combustion engines used in road, rail and water transport.

All that makes LNG increasingly popular, as confirmed by forecasts that put annual LNG output at 630 million tonnes in 2050, almost three times the 2016 figure. The LNG technology areas on which development work will focus in the coming years include in particular:

• Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) technologies that enable the production of LNG at sea, directly at offshore gas fields, which reduces the cost of LNG production by as much as 50% (IGU’s Global Natural Gas Insights – 2019 Edition)
• transport-related technologies, including refuelling infrastructure and the development of more efficient LNG-powered vehicles.

The development of LNG technologies is a catalyst of growth in gas mobility, which can be an alternative to electric vehicles, particularly in heavy transport. The trend allows sector companies to develop new business models targeted at both retail and institutional customers. Since liquefied natural gas meets stringent requirements of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), both ports and ship manufacturers keep tabs on technologies that enable the use of LNG to power ships. It should be noted that in the spring of 2019 one of the first commercial bunkering operations was carried out in Poland. It took place in the Port of Gdynia and used LNG supplied by PGNiG (for more information, see W kierunku energii przyszłości [Towards the energy of the future], a report published by PGNiG in 2019.